Sunday, 6 August 2017

Brace for a truly terrible hurricane season

quote [ “Forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which five to nine could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including two to four major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher),
Five named storms — Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don and Emily — formed prior to Aug. 1. “This is slightly above normal,” says senior meteorologist and climatologist David Dilley, of Global Weather Oscillations, whose predictions for the 2017 season call it “the most dangerous in 12 years.” ]

Batten down the hatches... Shes gonna blow.
[SFW] [science & technology] [+1 Funsightful]
[by bbqkink@5:07amGMT]

Comments

arrowhen said @ 4:46pm GMT on 6th Aug [Score:2 Funsightful]
BRACE FOR A TRULY TERRIBLE HURRICANE SEASON!!1!

"This is slightly above normal."
bbqkink said @ 9:58pm GMT on 6th Aug
Can I remind you of this in a few weeks?
arrowhen said @ 3:13am GMT on 7th Aug
Thing is, even an ordinary hurricane in an average hurricane season can ruin your fucking day if you're not prepared for it, and I don't think this kind of clickbait fear-mongering does anything to encourage people to prepare.
bbqkink said @ 3:44am GMT on 7th Aug
It seems like a fairly scientific warning delivered a a way that will get the most coverage. Sensational headlines work...crass but effective and preparing first comes from knowledge.

I just wanted to post the prediction.
machpi said @ 5:36pm GMT on 8th Aug
For Ike in '08 and Katrina in '05, the NWS told residents to evacuate or 'face certain death,' which of course was hyperbolic bullshit, and caused me to question all directives from them from then on. That's what sensational official headlines and hysterical official content leads to.

I don't need scientists and forecasters to feed me bullshit. I need them to furnish me the truth; I'll take it from there. I use the normal media for all of my hysterical needs.
bbqkink said @ 5:45pm GMT on 8th Aug
Dead from Katrina

Alabama 2
Florida 14
Georgia 2
Kentucky 1
Louisiana 986–1,577*
Mississippi 238
Ohio 2
Total 1,245–1,836[43][44]
Missing 10–66[45]

Sounds like it was good advice to me
machpi said[1] @ 6:14pm GMT on 8th Aug
It was terrible advice. If these people had faced 'certain death,' the numbers would be astronomical. I was in Long Beach, MS for Katrina. What we 'faced' was flooding for a day and loss of electricity for a week or three, unless you lived within a quarter mile of the beach, in which case what you faced was a terrifiying possibility that your home and yourself would wash away.

This is not what the NWS said, and I have zero need for hyperbole from a government entity.

If it takes lies and hyperbole to motivate some people to evacuate, well, god help us, because lies and hyperbole cause others to disregard future advice.


Several of my relatives who lived much closer to the water stayed at my house (3.2 miles away from the beach). Their houses came through the storm (badly), and I'm glad they were with me, but they would not have 'faced certain death' if they had stayed. The truth---that this was a bad storm, and those who lived within a mile of the beach should evacuate to higher ground, would have been more than enough warning for them to leave. They do that every time anyway, regardless of how hysterical the NWS warnings become, for anything more than a Cat 1 storm.



bbqkink said @ 6:25pm GMT on 8th Aug
"If it takes lies and hyperbole to motivate some people to evacuate, well, god help us",

I take it you stayed...if the landfall was 50 mile to the east you wouldn't be telling me about this
machpi said @ 6:37pm GMT on 8th Aug
That is utterly ludicrous and extremely patronizing.

I've been through more hurricanes than I can shake a stick at. Some I evacuate for, others I don't. I assess the potential of each storm and then prepare and/or evacuate as it warrants. Now I don't weight NWS warnings as much as I used to, for the reasons I've already stated.

bbqkink said[2] @ 6:41pm GMT on 8th Aug
But that contradicts every thing else you said the NWS gave you a warning of a dangerous storm...but you feel more comfortable relying on that sock tied to a stick and the bunion on your big toe as a weather predictor.

Don't get me wrong I once decided to stay on an oil rig in the gulf one missed me by 75 miles it got rough...but hey I'm ok. Point is weather forecasting is a guess more than a science...but these guys usually don't miss by much. They used to but they have gotten better.
machpi said @ 6:48pm GMT on 8th Aug
I'm not sure how you don't see that 'this is a dangerous Cat 3 storm; those in low-lying coastal areas are at risk of death if they do not evacuate' and 'this is a dangerous Cat 3 storm; those in low-lying coastal areas face certain death if they do not evacuate' are two enormously different warnings. One is the truth, the other is hyperbole.
bbqkink said @ 7:31pm GMT on 8th Aug
I don't know how you don't see it was a cat4 12 hours before it hit land fall.
machpi said @ 9:33pm GMT on 8th Aug [Score:1 Funny]
The place where we lived when Katrina hit, we would've stayed for anything less than a monster killer Cat 5. We were 3 miles away from the water on high ground, in a brick house that weathered a direct hit from Camille just fine.

The place we live now, we'll leave if it's a forecast Cat 1.
midden said @ 6:44pm GMT on 6th Aug [Score:1 Informative]
Tampa Bay has been incredibly lucky for the last 100 years or so. They are completely unprepared for a direct hit from a significant hurricane. Estimated damages are around $175 billion if a Katrina level storm lands there, not to mention loss of life.

I just read this recently:
http://www.naplesnews.com/story/weather/hurricanes/2017/07/29/tampa-bay-due-major-hurricane-not-prepared/522411001/
arrowhen said @ 7:20pm GMT on 6th Aug [Score:2]
They should do like Key West and get a high level cleric to cast a protection from hurricanes spell on them.
hellboy said @ 8:35pm GMT on 6th Aug [Score:1 Informative]
You need petrified unicorn feces to cast that, and there isn't any left on the Prime Material Plane except for one piece that costs $176 billion.
midden said @ 11:01pm GMT on 6th Aug
Interdimensional road trip! Just look out for those pesky githyanki.
zarathustra said @ 12:39am GMT on 7th Aug
You can't catch a unicorn without a virgin and good luck finding one in Key West.
robotroadkill said @ 10:12pm GMT on 6th Aug
I heard it's not luck but geography. Hurricanes coming from the Atlantic pummel the east coast and those farther south spiral up, missing that part of FL and hitting the panhandle. The last time Tampa was hit was an unusual hurricane originating off the Yucatan and heading across the gulf. Ju st moved down here so I hope that's accurate.
midden said[1] @ 10:55pm GMT on 6th Aug [Score:1 Informative]
Yes, that's certainly part of it, but they do hit the central west coast, too, just less frequently; only every ten years or so. For the last 100 years, Tampa has gotten lucky and only had very weak ones. Please do take weather warnings very seriously down there, robotoroadkill!

(edit: whoa, this is much bigger image than I realizsed)
Dienes said @ 9:43pm GMT on 6th Aug [Score:1 Underrated]
Please

make

a

hurricane

kit

for

your

household.

Honestly, make it a weekend project this week. Even if they are overstating how bad its going to be. Even if you aren't in hurricane country. It doubles as a wildfire/ earthquake/ flood/ tornado/ zompocalypse kit.
bbqkink said @ 5:19am GMT on 6th Aug
midden said @ 6:53pm GMT on 6th Aug
I think if I lived in that town, one of the first things I would do would be to build myself some serious car ramps, or buy a few sets of these.

car ramp
mcclint said @ 11:17am GMT on 6th Aug
Every year meteorologists say the same thing. "This will be the worst hurricane season ever!" If they say it every year for 20 years, they might be right one of those years. Then they'll say, "see? Told ya so." Living in Florida does come with risks: gators, sinkholes, Florida Man, and hurricanes. At least with hurricanes, we have warning of when and where they will strike. Category 1 and 2 storms aren't enough to get us natives out of bed. Last year when Matthew approached Jax as a category 3 storm, we took notice.
I'm not saying this won't be a bad year, but when they say the same thing every fucking year, they're just crying wolf.
bbqkink said @ 3:51pm GMT on 6th Aug
You mean like last year when they said...Near-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year

Oh and while not prefect they are pretty close. How accurate are pre-season hurricane landfall forecasts?
Dienes said[1] @ 9:33pm GMT on 6th Aug
Lived in Florida for a good decade now (and my partner for nearly two) and they don't say this every year, nor for every storm.

Edit: It helps to define who 'they' are. Tabloids are one thing. Actual meteorologists are another.
Fish said[1] @ 3:34am GMT on 9th Aug
Actual meteorologists?

July 31st, 2017 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
4,300 Days Since Last U.S. Major Hurricane Strike

Wednesday of this week will mark 4,300 days since the last major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger, 111-129 mph maximum sustained winds) made landfall in the U.S.

That’s almost 12 years.

The last major hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. was Wilma striking Florida on October 24, 2005, one of several strong hurricanes to hit the U.S. that year. The unusual hurricane activity in 2005 was a central focus of Al Gore’s 2006 movie, An Inconvenient Truth, in which Mr. Gore suggested 2005 was going to be the new normal. As you might recall, Gore went on to receive a Nobel Peace Prize for helping to raise awareness of the severe weather dangers from global warming.

Instead, the bottom dropped out of Atlantic hurricane activity after 2005. The “drought” of landfalling U.S. major hurricanes continues, and as seen in this graphic from WeatherStreet.com, no hurricanes have yet formed anywhere in the Atlantic basin in 2017, despite the forecast for an above-normal hurricane season:



Be sure to click through and read the comments.

Dienes said @ 1:40pm GMT on 9th Aug
You have no idea how excited I am to see a cumulative record!

We're only 2 months into a 6-month season, it might be a bit early to call it a bust, particularly when the other years on the chart picked up significantly in late August and September. We had a nice tropical storm/depression make landfall just last week.
Fish said @ 12:33pm GMT on 10th Aug
Even if you get your hurricane, you're going to need a ton of storms to make up the Al Gore scare deficit. And even then, as you know, weather ≠ climate.

Dienes said @ 2:00pm GMT on 10th Aug
God I hope we don't. With my luck it'll be named after my ex, too, like the last ones.

Seems odd to bring Al Gore into this when we're talking about meteorologists. Its almost like you have an agenda. I haven't even seen that movie because there's no dragons or spaceships in it.
bbqkink said @ 10:42pm GMT on 6th Aug
It’s peak hurricane season, but the nation’s worst weather disaster right now is raging on the High Plains.

An intense drought has quickly gripped much of the Dakotas and parts of Montana this summer, catching farmers and ranchers off-guard. The multi-agency U.S. Drought Monitor recently upgraded the drought to “exceptional,” its highest severity level, matching the intensity of the California drought at its peak.

Forget Flash Floods. Flash Droughts Are Even More Terrifying.
“I don’t think anybody has time to feel scared.”
midden said @ 10:56pm GMT on 6th Aug
Climate change? What climate change?
bbqkink said @ 2:14am GMT on 7th Aug
Oh and if anybody needs a good weather station This is the one I like

Weather Underground

I
Fish said @ 1:23pm GMT on 6th Aug [Score:-1]
filtered comment under your threshold
bbqkink said[1] @ 3:59pm GMT on 6th Aug
An Aussie automatic whether station is screwed up...so there is no global warming is that it?
arrowhen said @ 7:22pm GMT on 6th Aug
Sweet! Now I can drive my 13 ton SUV fueled by burning tires with a clear conscience again!
midden said @ 12:07am GMT on 7th Aug
Burning tires to power your SUV? That's recycling! GREEN POWER
hellboy said @ 8:33pm GMT on 6th Aug
The link is to a known propaganda source.

(a) provide a credible source
(b) show that the errors in one place are sufficient to somehow counter the overwhelming evidence worldwide
(c) you can't, so fuck off, Fish
Fish said @ 3:05am GMT on 7th Aug
(a) provide a credible source

To the Climate Faithful®, there's no such thing.

bbqkink said @ 6:59pm GMT on 7th Aug
When every credible voice is against you and all you can produce is vested interest railing against facts...declare yourself as being persecuted....is getting old.
C18H27NO3 said @ 7:10pm GMT on 7th Aug
I also wonder why fish and numbers are even here. They are so fundamentally opposite of the group that frequents this place it makes me question their motives. The only comments I see are political in nature.
mechanical contrivance said @ 7:43pm GMT on 7th Aug
Trolls gotta troll.
Dienes said @ 2:01pm GMT on 10th Aug
Contrarians gotta contrary.
Fish said @ 3:30am GMT on 9th Aug
I also wonder why fish and numbers are even here. They are so fundamentally opposite of the group that frequents this place it makes me question their motives. The only comments I see are political in nature.

If only everyone had your virtue. If only there was a way you could make them...

Fish said @ 3:30am GMT on 9th Aug
When every credible voice is against you

You see, it's nonsense like that.

NYT Caught Switching Out Documents To Fix Botched Climate Change Article

It keeps me coming back, because the truth of the goddamn climate hoax is so blatantly, incontrovertibly obvious if you'd only open your eyes.

But in a way, it doesn't really matter whether you wake up or not, because anyone with a brain can see where Al Gore's religion wants to take us: control of every aspect of every human life. It's the perfect storm of the authoritarian: control energy and you've got it all.

Shame on you for believing it, for not standing up on your own and saying Fuck. That. Shit. You're a fucking tool of it.

But then, as an emasculated leftist male, you can't be counted on to do or think hard things; your goal in life is to leave the decision making to those 'more qualified'. The eternal search for the 'expert'. Academia!

Fuck your 'experts'.

Your side has corrupted science beyond recognition; you've created a group-think so opaque that no one is good enough to break free.

You know what? I used to be just like you. A friend gave me a copy of Horowitz's "Radical Son". Read it. You'll be angry that you wasted your life on this bullshit.



midden said[1] @ 11:17pm GMT on 6th Aug [Score:0 Underrated]
Oh, the scandal!. However, the other one thousand nine hundred and thirty weather stations in Australia don't seem to be having any problems. I hope the data hasn't been too terribly skewed.

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